By The Trump trade has wobbled this week as Kamala Harris’ betting odds have crept higher amid some promising signals for the Democratic candidate from early-voting data.
In bets on Kalshi, the betting market open to US citizens, Harris’ odds of winning the election rose to about 44% from a low of about 35% on Tuesday, while Trump’s odds of winning the election dropped from a peak of about 65% to 56%.
Meanwhile, Harris’ odds of winning the popular vote gained about 10 percentage points on Kalshi this week, rising from a low of about 61% on Tuesday to 71% on Friday morning,
The change in each candidate’s betting odds could be based on promising hints for Harris’ campaign in early-voting data nationally and in key states.
“The situation in Pennsylvania — where women have outpaced men by 13 points in the early vote — has sent the [Trump] campaign into a tailspin during the past two days,” Puck reported on Thursday.
The Trump campaign is also worried about losing Michigan, which has seen a surge in young student voters, so winning Pennsylvania is crucial for the campaign, Puck reported.
So far, nearly 65 million people have voted early via in-person voting or mail-in ballots. The gender breakdown in early voting is 54% women compared to 44% men, and polls have consistently found women support Harris by a wide margin.
Trump trades have also weakened as the betting odds shifted this week.
Perhaps the most prominent of the Trump trades — stock in Truth Social’s parent company, Trump Media and Technology Group — plunged by as much as 40% since Trump’s election odds peaked on Tuesday.
Bitcoin — which has soared on the back of Trump’s rising odds in betting markets amid hope that he would pursue a much more pro-crypto agenda — has also declined since Trump’s election odds peaked this week.
The cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7%, though it’s since rebounded, rising about 3% Friday morning.
Other Trump trades haven’t dropped significantly, but they’ve seen their recent rallies stall, including the US dollar, which could rise considerably under a Trump presidency because of his planned tariffs and an expected rise in interest rates.
The US dollar index rose 4% since the start of October as Trump’s election odds soared, but after hitting a peak on Tuesday, it’s edged slightly lower.
Even after this week’s shift, Trump is still far ahead of Harris in betting markets, while the polls remain much tighter. The latest polling average from 538 has Harris leading 48% versus 46.8% for Trump.
