By Betting markets are having a moment in the 2024 presidential election cycle.
The popularity of platforms that allow users to wager on politics has exploded, with sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to place bets on specific election outcomes. Robinhood is the latest platform to get in on the action, with the popular brokerage app announcing the launch of its own election-betting contracts on Monday.
Earlier this month, a US federal appeals court cleared Kalshi to open its election-betting platform for US citizens. Since then, the platform has attracted more than $100 million in bets related to who will win the election on November 5.
Kalshi has rocketed in popularity on the Apple App Store, becoming its No. 7 top free app Tuesday morning. Among free finance apps, Kalshi is the top download, eclipsing Cash App, PayPal, and Venmo.
“I think we’re gunning for No. 1 for the entire App Store by Election Day, so the demand curve truly is exponential,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC on Monday.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, which is not available to US citizens, has seen an explosion in trading volume this year.
According to data from The Block, nearly $2 billion has been wagered on Polymarket’s website in October, about quadruple the $533 million wagered in September and more than 10 times the $39 million wagered in April.
Before 2024, the monthly trading volume on Polymarket was typically less than $20 million.
The Block
While Polymarket isn’t available to US users, it’s attracted a lot of attention and shaped the discussion of these betting platforms in the US media in the final stretch of the election cycle. That’s because the odds on the platform for the election outcome highly favor former President Donald Trump, in stark contrast with the polls, which are extremely close one week out from the vote.
There’s also been scrutiny of the betting itself on the platform. Some of Polymarket’s trading volume this month has come from a massive “whale” trader who has bet more than $30 million on the outcome of the US election, at times placing as many as 71 bets a minute. The bets have been mainly for Trump to win the presidential election.
Interactive Brokers also launched a slew of election-betting contracts earlier this month following the court decision to allow Kalshi to operate.
Between the rapid legalization of sports betting, the continued popularity of crypto trading, and now the sudden spike in interest around election odds, there’s a clear convergence of ways for the average person to make — and, in many cases, lose — money through a few clicks on their phone. It’s a situation where everyday hobbies are becoming financialized.
Mansour, Kalshi’s CEO, said the boom in betting markets is a good thing because it allows for a new arbiter of truth based on money.
“Now when you’re asking a question of, will TikTok get banned? Who are we relying on to get that answer? Now there is a market-based mechanism to look to,” Mansour said.
A job posting on its website said Kalshi’s mission is to bring “more truth to the world through the power of markets.”
