By This was CNBC’s live blog tracking developments on the war in Ukraine on June 26, 2023. See here for the latest updates.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called the organizers of an attempted mutiny criminals and said his military would have crushed the uprising anyway. Putin’s comments were his first since mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led the private militia Wagner Group to march on Moscow over the weekend.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden sai that the United States was not involved in the aborted weekend rebellion in Russia.
“We made clear we are not involved, we had nothing to do with it, this was part of a struggle within the Russian system,” Biden said from the White House.
Prigozhin’s private militia Wagner Group on Saturday seized control of the strategic city of Rostov and advanced an armed convoy to within 200 kilometers of Moscow. Less than 24 hours later, the rebellion was over, and Prigozhin announced that Wagner would be turning back in order to avoid spilling Russian blood.
The rebellion has raised questions about President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power and what could be next for the country.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the mutiny exposed “cracks” in Moscow, while Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Monday that despite the deal, Prigozhin is a “dead man walking.”
Russia’s defense ministry said Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited troops in occupied Ukraine Monday, in his first public appearance since the weekend. Shoigu’s future had been called into question following the mutiny, but the Telegram post indicates that he remains in charge.
Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly been exiled to Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has delivered his first televised address since Wagner Group mercenaries instigated a failed mutiny against Russian military leaders over the weekend.
Putin called the rebellion “criminal activity to split and weaken the country, which is now confronting a colossal external threat,” meaning the international response to Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian president said the organizers of the armed insurrection would be “brought to justice,” yet he did not mention Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin by name.
He also offered apparent clemency to the hundreds of Wagner mercenaries who participated in the armed march from the southern city of Rostov to about 200 miles outside Moscow.
The speech did little to clarify what comes next for the Wagner Group or for the Russian military, which was unprepared for the speed and ease with which the rebel convoy traveled through the country on major highways.
In his speech, Putin insisted his troops would have crushed the rebellion if it had proceeded any further.
— Christina Wilkie
An exhibition by Anton Tkachenko called “Heads” is open to visitors in Odesa, Ukraine. The artificial heads in clear boxes depict the leadership of the Russian Federation surrounded by live Madagascar cockroaches.
-Viacheslav Onyshchenko | SOPA Images | Getty Images
Australia’s top court on Monday rejected Russia’s plea to retain a plot of land in Canberra, where Moscow planned to build a new embassy.
Russia had raised the court challenge earlier this month after the Australian government canceled the lease on national security grounds, citing a spying risk.
Its current embassy is situated further away from the federal building in the nation’s capital.
Moscow originally purchased the lease for the new site in 2008, and was granted approval to build its new embassy there in 2011. But this month, Australia’s Parliament rushed through new laws aimed specifically at terminating the lease.
A Russian diplomat who had been squatting in protest near the site left in an embassy car following the ruling.
— Karen Gilchrist
The future of the Wagner private milita group is unclear after its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched an apparent insurrection over the weekend, raising questions about whether the mercenary soldiers will continue to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.
John Barranco, the 2021-2022 senior U.S. Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said in a blog post that the short-lived Wagner rebellion could not have come at a better time for Ukraine.
Describing Wagner as Russia’s most effective unit in Ukraine, Barranco said the mercenary group will almost certainly be disbanded and it was not yet clear whether its fighters will be absorbed into the Russian army.
Tony Brenton, former British ambassador to Russia, agreed that the Wagner mercenary group had been the most effective component of Russia’s military in Ukraine.
“The fact that, apparently, Prigozhin is now out of [the war] and maybe Wagner is also out of it will weaken Russia’s performance on the battlefield,” Brenton told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday.
Read the full story here.
— Sam Meredith
European foreign ministers on Monday pledged fresh military support for Ukraine following an armed revolt in Russia over the weekend.
The leaders, who were gathered for a meeting in Luxembourg, agreed to increase the EU’s military assistance fund for Ukraine by 3.5 billion euros ($3.8 billion) to roughly 12 billion euros for the coming years.
Germany also said it would permanently deploy around 4,000 soldiers to NATO ally Lithuania, and send a further 45 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine by the end of the year.
The decision to bolster the alliance’s military presence in the Baltic state comes amid fresh security concerns from Lithuanian authorities, as well as a broader restructuring of NATO forces expected next month.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said the relocation of warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus following Saturday’s attempted insurrection raised the possibility of a significant Wagner mercenary presence near his country.
“It took half a day for a military detachment to move 200 kilometers away from Moscow, so imagine how fast they can do that crossing Belarus and appearing on Lithuania’s borders,” he said, urging Western allies to consider the risks very carefully and offer “very specific plans” to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.
— Karen Gilchrist
Ukrainian troops have recaptured the southeastern village of Rivnopil from Russian forces, according to Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar Monday.
“[Ukrainian] defense forces returned Rivnopil under our control,” she announced on Telegram, according to a translation.
Rivnopil sits in the west of the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian forces have been mounting a counteroffensive in recent weeks. CNBC was not able to independently verify the reports.
— Elliot Smith
Ukrainian long-dated bonds rallied on Monday to reach pre-war levels on the back of the aborted Russian rebellion, according to Reuters.
The country’s 2041 bond rose by almost 5 cents to reach 42 cents on the dollar before giving back some of its gains, Reuters reported citing Tradeweb data.
— Elliot Smith
The attempted mutiny over the weekend by one of his former allies is “the single worst thing” that has happened to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his 23 years in power, according to former Russian investor turned anti-Putin activist Bill Browder.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday, Browder said Putin’s modus operandi of being seen as the world’s toughest and most effective dictator was undermined as some parts of the population fell into line behind Wagner Group mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
“The reason why this is so bad for Putin is because if his image of being a strongman has been shattered, then other people will have a go at him. Russia’s a big place, there’s a lot of money involved, and there’s a lot of people that would like to have that power and get that money, and now the door is wide open,” said Browder, CEO and co-founder of Hermitage Capital Management.
“It would only close if Putin could somehow recreate that image, to reassert his authority and to become even more brutal, and so I would say that there is a purge coming of monumental proportions in order for Putin to try and show his teeth to the Russian people.”
— Elliot Smith
With an attempted mutiny by Russia’s mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin ending in an anti-climactic pullback, Russian President Vladimir Putin was able to avoid a dramatic and bloody standoff with his one-time ally.
Nonetheless, the fact that outspoken Prigozhin could even mount an armed mutiny with his private military company, the Wagner Group, with little resistance and an apparently muted response is widely seen as a deep political blow for Putin and his regime.
“Prigozhin’s armed rebellion indicates a political crisis within Russia and shatters the myth of Russia’s invincibility and overwhelming power,” Hanna Liubakova, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and a journalist and researcher from Belarus, said in a note Sunday.
Prigozhin and his mercenary forces on Saturday seized one of the Russian military’s key bases in the south of the country, and the city of Rostov-on-Don, before proceeding north to Moscow. However, the rebellion was dramatically called off before the rebels reached the capital city.
Russia experts and political analysts characterized the apparent attempted insurrection as “24 hours that shook the Kremlin” and the biggest challenge to Putin and the Russian elite in decades.
Read more here: Putin’s weaknesses laid bare after 24 hours of mutiny chaos in Russia
— Holly Ellyatt
Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported Monday morning that the criminal case against Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin over the attempted mutiny is still ongoing.
“The criminal case against Prigozhin has not been terminated, a source in the Prosecutor General’s Office told RIA Novosti,” the agency posted on Telegram, according to a translation.
This contradicts prior reports, citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, which suggested that the criminal investigation into Prigozhin would be closed as part of the deal that halted the march of Wagner mercenaries toward Moscow.
— Elliot Smith
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address Sunday that the longer Russia’s campaign of aggression lasts, the “more degradation it causes in Russia itself.”
“One of the manifestations of this degradation is that Russian aggression is gradually returning to its home harbor,” Zelenskyy added.
With the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania two weeks away, a Ukrainian presidential delegation met in Copenhagen over the weekend with political advisers to Turkey and India, two countries that have thus far remained neutral on the war, along with allies from EU institutions and Japan.
“We are bringing the implementation of the Peace Formula closer and for this purpose, we involve the widest possible range of partners,” Zelenskyy said in the video posted Sunday.
At a G20 summit in November, the Ukrainian president proposed a 10-point peace plan supported by many Western allies. It includes the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and security around its key nuclear plants, a complete withdrawal of Russian forces, and accountability for war crimes.
— Elliot Smith
The Russian ruble slid to its lowest point in almost 15 months against the U.S. dollar on Monday morning on the back of the failed Wagner mutiny.
As of around 9:45 a.m. London time, the ruble was trading just below 85 to the dollar, a level last seen at the end of March 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
— Elliot Smith
European foreign affairs ministers are gathering in Luxembourg Monday morning with the latest events out of Russia dominating their conversations.
“It is more important than ever to support Ukraine,” the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said to the press.
“Because what has happened during this weekend shows that the war against Ukraine is cracking Russian power and its political system,” he said.
The Wagner Group, seen as a private military organization in Russia, started a mutiny on Saturday complaining about the country’s defense minister and criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The revolt ended soon after that, but it exposed the fragilities of Putin within his own country. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “we haven’t seen the last act.”
“This is an internal affair of Russia,” Sweden’s Foreign Affairs Minister Tobias Billstrom said at his arrival for the meeting in Luxembourg.
“What happens in Russia (…) is going to have an impact on the security circumstances but the important thing right now is to stand by Ukraine in its efforts to regain its territorial integrity.”
He added that overall the short-lived uprising in Russia showed that “it is quite clear that the war is not going the way Putin wanted it to go.”
Russia’s attempt to achieve a full-scale invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022.
— Silvia Amaro
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited his troops in Ukraine, the defense ministry said Monday, making his first public appearance since the weekend mutiny by Wagner mercenaries.
In a post on Telegram, the Ministry of Defense said Shoigu was briefed on progress by the commander of some troops in occupied Ukraine, according to a Google translation.
It indicates that Shoigu remains in charge despite the insurrection, which Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin abruptly called off less than 24 hours after it began.
Shoigu’s future has been called into question following the events of the weekend, but the Telegram post described him as “head of the Russian military department.”
— Audrey Wan
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin on Monday announced the end of the emergency counter-terror measures imposed in response to the Wagner’s armed mutiny.
In a statement posted on Telegram, Sobyanin thanked Muscovites for their “calmness and understanding.”
— Elliot Smith
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the violent insurrection by one of President Putin’s longtime allies exposed “cracks” in the regime that “weren’t there before.”
“This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia,” Blinken told CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.
He called Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s direct challenge to Putin “extraordinary” and said Russia’s war in Ukraine has ultimately been a “devastating, strategic failure.”
Blinken expects the U.S. to learn more about the intricacies of the deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin, as well as the eventual fate of the Wagner Group, in the coming weeks and months.
Read the full story here.
– Elliot Smith
Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is a “dead man walking” after leading a botched rebellion against Vladimir Putin, according to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.
The weekend’s armed revolt by Prigozhin, a former Putin ally who founded the Wagner private militia group, has been viewed as a rare threat to the Russian president’s 23-year grip on power. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the episode exposed “cracks” in the Kremlin that had not been previously seen.
Prigozhin is “kind of dead man walking at this point,” Bremmer said on “Squawk Box Asia” Monday. “I would be very surprised that he’s still with us in a few months’ time.”
The Prigozhin-led revolt was unprecedented as Putin has — until now — been able to swiftly quell any occasional unarmed protest. On the weekend, the Wagner mutineers got within 200 kilometers of the capital of Moscow before their leader made the abrupt announcement to abort the mission.
Read this story for more.
— Clement Tan
The criminal charges against Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will be dropped and he will go to Belarus, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Saturday, according to Russian state media.
Russian authorities will not prosecute members of the Wagner that participated in the rebellion, and the PMC fighters who refused to participate in Prigozhin’s “campaign” will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, Peskov said.
There will be no new televised address from Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Peskov said the leader continued to work in the Kremlin all day.
Peskov said the rebellion will not affect the course of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in any way.
— Ashley Capoot
Wagner chief Prigozhin to leave for Belarus, Russian state media says, as rebellion ends
