By President Donald Trump flipped the script on one of the market’s biggest worries about his presidency this week — his plan to levy steep tariffs on imports— and it’s sent stocks climbing to new records as concerns about trade policy fade for the time being.
The week’s developments represent a considerable shift in the market narrative, as traders have fretted over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s tariff plan for months.
In early January, stocks sold off and bond yields spiked on reports that Trump was considering using his emergency powers to bring tariffs early on in his presidency.
The message was clear: The market believed tariffs would stoke inflation, which could lead to interest rates staying higher for longer and crush hopes that looser monetary policy would extend the bull market into its third year.
But Trump’s orders in the first days of his presidency seem to have turned that narrative upside down, with markets getting a major leg-up this week on optimism for economic growth over the next four years.
Stocks have climbed steadily higher since Trump’s inauguration, when the president promised that tariffs would lead to “massive amounts of money” pouring into the US.
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, recovering from a sell-off at the start of the year as traders digest a slew of orders and policy announcements from the White House.
“Now investors are focused on, okay, the executive orders are coming through, he’s serious about deregulation, he’s serious about getting the tax cuts,” Nancy Tengler, the chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments, told Business Insider.
“Those are important elements for the market, because — whether you agree with him or not, that’s never the issue. The issue is the uncertainty. And so it looks like we’re going to have a regular order of business and things are going to chug along,” she added.
The bond market also appears to have recovered some of its losses. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury crept up slightly this week but is down about 20 basis points from its peak earlier in the month. The yield was hovering around 4.6% Friday after approaching 5% a few weeks ago, a level that has historically been a threshold for a sell-off in stocks when crossed.
Investor sentiment, meanwhile, is up sharply. According to the AAII’s latest Investor Sentiment Survey, 43% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next six months, up from 25% who felt that way the prior week.
“People look excited about what appears to be a real pro-growth agenda,” Paul Stanley, the chief investment officer of Granite Bay Wealth Management told BI in an interview, adding that investors likely have put their worries for inflation on hold. “On the whole, the market is telling us that they believe his policies are likely to be better for growth than they’re negative on the other end.”
In other words, the president’s flurry of executive actions this week helped steer the market’s attention toward higher growth and away from potential threats of a still-uncertain trade policy.
Trump signed an executive order declaring a “national energy emergency,” lowering guardrails to increase fracking and oil production in the US.
He announced a $500 billion deal between OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank to build more AI infrastructure, an initiative he said would create more than 100,000 jobs in the US. That announcement sparked a pronounced move up among the market’s top AI tech stocks midweek.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum, he said he would demand that “interest rates drop immediately” and ask Saudi Arabia to help bring down oil prices.
On Thursday, he signed an executive order related to crypto, reviving bullishness. While the order was light on big developments related to some of the most bullish ideas floating around the crypto sphere—like the establishment of a national bitcoin stockpile—industry insiders say they feel it is a step in the right direction toward more robust government support for digital assets.
