By The results are in, and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will defeat Republican rival Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 election — at least according to the historian dubbed the “Nostradamus” of presidential election predictions.
It’s the latest election prophecy from Allan Lichtman, an American University distinguished professor who boasts of having successfully predicted the results of every U.S. presidential race since 1984.
Lichtman revealed his decision Thursday morning in an op-ed video for The New York Times.
“The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in the video.
“At least, that’s my prediction for this race.”
His forecasts are based on a historical index model he dubs the “Keys to the White House.”
The unique system, which he developed in the early 1980s with the Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzes the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements focused on the incumbent president’s party.
If six or more of the statements are false, then the challenger — in this case, Trump — is predicted to win.
Here are the keys, and Lichtman’s determinations for each:
On the final two keys, Lichtman said, “Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.”
He noted that the Biden administration is deeply involved in Israel’s war in Gaza, which he called a “humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.”
“But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,” Lichtman told the Times.
Lichtman’s analysis largely eschews poll results, campaign strategies, sound bites, policy plans and other factors that most political commentators and analysts tend to lean on.
But his system has yielded results.
Lichtman was one of the few political analysts to accurately predict ahead of the 2016 election that Trump would defeat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. However, Lichtman’s model indicated that Trump would win the popular vote, which he lost despite securing the Electoral College.
Lichtman accurately predicted that President Joe Biden would beat Trump in the 2020 race.
Despite the unprecedented circumstances of the 2024 race — including Harris replacing Biden as the nominee in its final months — Lichtman expressed confidence that his keys would yield an accurate prediction.
“The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction,” he said in Thursday’s video.
“The outcome is up to you,” he added. “So get out and vote.”
