By The match-up every single NFL fan has been waiting for is here: Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson. These two quarterbacks have been neck-in-neck for the league MVP title for months now.
Now, Allen’s Buffalo Bills will host Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens in what I would argue is statistically the greatest quarterback match-up in divisional playoff history.
The greatest of what will be, after this weekend, 229 divisional playoff games in the Super Bowl era.
Football is weird in that no one stat is the be all and end all. Still, it’s pretty clear in the stats that are all encompassing that Allen and Jackson are really good.
Take for instance adjusted net yards per pass attempt. This seeks to measure how many yards a quarterback and touchdowns a quarterback throws for, as well as adjusting that for how many sacks and interceptions they throw.
Jackson was first in the NFL at 9.4 and Allen was third at 8.0 yards. Allen threw for fewer yards and touchdowns than Jackson, but he took fewer sacks. Jackson threw two fewer interceptions, though both were well below the league average.
I went back through the record books to see any other divisional games where both starting quarterbacks had 8.0 or better adjusted net yards per pass attempt during the regular season leading up to the playoff.
There were just two: the 2014 NFC divisional playoff between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Packers and the 2019 AFC divisional playoff between the Ravens (and Jackson) and the Tennessee Titans.
Of course, one of the things that makes Allen and Jackson so special is that they can run the ball with authority. Allen runs like a fullback and picks up a ton of first downs and touchdowns. Jackson runs for yards.
Both men have over 500 yards rushing and at least four rushing touchdowns. Allen is second in the league in rushing touchdowns, while Jackson leads the league in rushing yards.
Again, I decided to look back and see how many divisional playoff games featured two starting quarterbacks who ran for at least 500 yards and 4 touchdowns during that year’s regular season.
There were a mere three: the 2013 NFC divisional playoff between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers, the 2014 NFC divisional playoff between the Panthers and Seattle Seahawks and the 2022 NFC divisional playoff between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles.
In other words, the match-up between Allen and Jackson will mark the first time in an AFC divisional playoff that both team’s starting quarterbacks ran for at least 500 yards and 4 touchdowns that regular season.
What you’ll note is that none of these games with the elite rushing quarterbacks are the same as the games with the elite passing quarterbacks.
Combining passing and rushing statistics for a quarterback isn’t easy. Indeed, as I noted at the start, combining all the passing statistics into one metric is a fraught exercise.
Still, we can make an attempt. One way to do that is through Pro-Football Reference’s approximate value metric.
Allen’s approximate value this year is currently a 20. Jackson’s is slightly higher at a 21. Both of those are elite and are the best and second best in the league.
What’s amazing is this marks the only time in divisional playoff history that both teams’ starting quarterbacks have approximate values of at least 20.
By this metric, this weekend’s game is the greatest match-up of starting quarterbacks in a divisional round playoff game ever.
Now to be clear, this isn’t the only stat that seeks to combine rushing and passing into one metric. You can use ESPN’s QBR or expected points added (EPA) above replacement.
Allen is, for example, slightly ahead of Jackson in ESPN’s QBR, so these stats can differ slightly.
When the great Neil Paine ran the stats, he found the only divisional round playoff with a better combined EPA above replacement for the starting quarterbacks was the 2013 game between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers.
When you are arguing whether this weekend’s matchup is the greatest or second greatest in divisional playoff history, you know it is historic.
And because both quarterbacks are so good, this game, itself, is historic. Paine calculated that this is the best divisional playoff game in 50 years, when you take into account how good the teams were and how tough their schedules were during the regular season.
My hope as a Bills’ fan is that it is a historically good game for the blue and red. Otherwise, don’t expect me to show up to work on Monday.
