By US stocks ended mixed on Friday, though the S&P 500 rose to fresh records as traders took in November jobs data and ramped up bets for another rate cut this month.
Bond yields were lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield down three basis points to 4.151%.
Employers added slightly more jobs than expected last month, with payrolls rising by 227,000 compared to estimates of 220,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The jobless rate, meanwhile, edged up slightly to 4.2%.
A stronger job market is solidifying confidence that the US economy will avoid a downturn, which is a positive for stocks. Yet, the increase in unemployment is leading investors to grow more confident that the Fed will feel comfortable continuing to cut interest rates, with markets pricing eyeing an 85% of a rate cut at this month’s policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:
- S&P 500: 6,090.27, up 0.25%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,637.44, down 0.28% (-123.19 points)
- Nasdaq composite: 19,859.77, up 0.81%
“Today’s report tells us we are clearly not entering into a recession. This is the last piece of data the Fed needs to make its decision later this month. This job report was a quality print and tells us the job market remains healthy and steady,” Gina Bolvin, the president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said in a statement.
“There’s a fine line between normalization and deterioration in the labor market, but the US still appears to be following the normalization path,” Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, added. “The unemployment rate’s negative tilt may help make a firmer case for a 25bp cut from the Fed this month.”
Doubts, though, are lingering over whether the Fed will continue to cut rates in early 2025. The probability that rates will remain just 25 basis-points lower in January — implying one skip — have climbed to 63%, up from a 58% chance priced in a week ago.
Here’s what else is happening:
- From crypto to meme stocks, the rally is looking a lot like the market’s pandemic-era frenzy.
- The Fed shouldn’t cut rates in December as the economy looks too hot, according to one JPMorgan Asset Management bond expert.
- The US and other crude producers will take more oil market share from OPEC in the coming years, according to Bank of America.
- Insurers are facing $135 billion in losses after extreme weather events around the world this year.
In commodities, bonds, and crypto:
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil edged lower 1.68% to $67.15 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, ticked lower 0.08% to $71.06 a barrel.
- Gold inched up 0.12% to $2,635 an ounce.
- The 10-year Treasury yield dipped three basis points to 4.151%.
- Bitcoin was up almost 2% to $101,302.
