By This was CNBC’s live blog tracking developments on the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine has moved to quash speculation behind First Lady Olena Zelenska’s decline of an invitation to attend U.S. President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address Thursday.
There has been speculation that Zelenska had declined the invitation on learning that Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, could also be at the prestigious event, and because Ukraine was wary of being seen to be too close to Biden ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
In other news, a missile alert is in operation in the Russian border region of Kursk on Wednesday after a fuel and lubricants warehouse at a major iron ore plant in Kursk was targeted in an alleged Ukrainian drone attack.
Kursk governor Roman Starovoit said on Telegram that two drones had struck fuel facilities at the Mikhailovsky GOK iron ore plant, one of Russia’s largest iron ore plants and owned by Metalloinvest, Russia’s largest iron ore producer. Metalloinvest confirmed the incident and said the plant was still working.
Russian authorities in the border region of Belgorod and nearby Voronezh also reported attempted attacks by Ukrainian drones. Russia’s defense ministry said its air defense systems had shot down drones over Belgorod and Kursk. Kyiv has not commented on the incidents.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday said that Russia would not interfere with the U.S. presidential election later this year, and had not done so in the past.
“We never interfered in elections in the United States,” Peskov said, according to Reuters. “And this time, we do not intend to interfere.”
Peskov reiterated that any attempts by other countries to interfere with Russia’s presidential elections would be prevented.
Investigations from U.S. authorities have previously found that Russia has interfered, or at least tried to, during several recent elections in the U.S., including presidential elections and midterms.
— Sophie Kiderlin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday that people had been killed and injured in a Russian attack on Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa.
Zelenskyy was also quoted by the broadcaster Suspilne as saying that Ukraine needed stronger air defences. He was meeting Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Odesa.
— Reuters
Ukraine’s sinking of the Russian patrol ship, the “Sergei Kotov,” Tuesday continues a trend of attacks against Russia’s prized Black Sea Fleet that will limit the fleet’s ability to maneuver around Crimea, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence said Wednesday.
“This is the third Russian Black Sea Fleet vessel sunk in the past five weeks,” the ministry said in an intelligence update on X.
“Likely because of Black Sea Fleet losses, on 15 February 2024, the Black Sea Fleet Commander, Admiral Viktor Sokolov, was dismissed. Ukraine continues to limit the freedom of manoeuvre of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea,” the ministry said.
The “Sergei Kotov,” which Ukraine said it had attacked with naval drones Tuesday, leading to the vessel sinking, was only commissioned into the Black Sea Fleet in July 2022.
“It had been previously targeted by USVs [Unmanned Surface Vehicles] in July and September 2023, sustaining minor damage and returning to service shortly after on both occasions,” the ministry noted.
— Holly Ellyatt
Germany’s ambassador to the U.K. said there was “no need to apologize” for a security breach that led to a call between top Russian military officials being leaked by the media.
Miguel Berger told BBC Radio 4’s Today program Wednesday that one of the participants of the call had likely dialed in via an insecure line. Russia was able to intercept the call as a result, he said.
During the call, officials purportedly discussed the possibility of giving Ukraine long-range Taurus missiles and possible Russian targets, including the Crimean bridge linking the Russian mainland to annexed Crimea.
The officials also said British troops were on the ground in Ukraine, much to the U.K.’s frustration, with former U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace saying Germany was “pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence” and “neither secure nor reliable.”
“It is extremely unhelpful what Ben Wallace has done,” Berger said, adding that “this is what Russia wants.”
Germany confirmed the authenticity of the call but said it was unsure whether it had been edited. It said an investigation would be launched into the security breach.
— Holly Ellyatt
Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency is responsible for an attack on the Mikhailovsky iron ore plant in Russia’s Kursk region, a source in GUR told Reuters on Wednesday on condition of anonymity.
Russian officials and the plant’s owner, Metalloinvest, said earlier that two drones had struck a fuel tank at the enterprise, one of Russia’s largest iron ore plants.
— Reuters
The Kremlin said Wednesday that it does not recognize the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) the previous day for top Russian military commanders.
“We are not part of the ICC, we don’t recognize this and we treat this decision accordingly,” the Kremlin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday.
The ICC on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for Lieutenant General Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash and Admiral Viktor Nikolayevich Sokolov, saying there were “reasonable grounds to believe that the two suspects bear responsibility for missile strikes carried out by the forces under their command against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure from at least 10 October 2022 until at least 9 March 2023.”
It said that there was reason to believe the strikes were aimed at civilian targets and caused “excessive incidental harm.” They could be classed as actions taken against a civilian population, which falls under the category of “crimes against humanity or inhumane acts,” the ICC said.
Ukraine welcomed the ICC’s move, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stating that “international justice requires time, but it is unavoidable.”
“We continue to make every effort to ensure that no Russian beast responsible for the murder of Ukrainian children, women, and men goes unpunished. And no number of stars on shoulder straps or cabinet doors will keep them from being held accountable,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on social media platform X.
— Holly Ellyatt, Sophie Kiderlin
Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska will not be attending U.S. President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address Thursday because of a scheduling conflict, her spokesperson said.
“The Embassy of Ukraine in the USA received an invitation for the First Lady of Ukraine to be present on March 7 during the Union address to Congress by the President of the United States,” Tetyana Gaiduchenko said.
“But due to the planned events in the schedule, including the visit of Kyiv children from the orphanage, which were planned in advance, unfortunately, the first lady will not be able to participate in the events,” she said, NBC reported.
There has been speculation that Zelenska declined the invitation on learning that Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, had also been invited to the prestigious event.
The Washington Post reported that Navalnaya’s potential presence was uncomfortable for the Ukrainians because of Navalny’s past statements that Crimea, which Putin annexed in 2014, belonged to Russia.
Citing people familiar with Kyiv’s deliberations, the news outlet said that sources noted that the Ukrainians were also wary of being viewed as too closely aligned with Biden ahead of the U.S. presidential election, where a Republican candidate, highly likely to be Donald Trump, could be reelected.
— Holly Ellyatt
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign intelligence chief has said French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to rule out sending European troops to fight Russian soldiers in Ukraine was extremely dangerous and irresponsible.
Macron said last month that there was no consensus on sending European troops to fight in Ukraine but that nothing should be excluded, though the United States and other European members of the alliance have said there were no plans to do so.
Asked about Macron’s remarks, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the main successor to the KGB’s First Directorate foreign spying section, said they were deeply irresponsible.
“This shows the high degree of political irresponsibility of Europe’s leaders today, in this case, the president of France,” Naryshkin told state television in remarks on Tuesday. “These statements are extremely dangerous.”
“It is sad to see this, sad to observe and sad to understand that the ability of current elites in Europe and the North Atlantic to negotiate is at a very low level,” he said. “They more and more rarely demonstrate any common sense at all.”
— Reuters
The governor of Russia’s Kursk region said on Wednesday that a fuel warehouse was on fire after it was attacked by a Ukrainian drone.
Local governor Roman Starovoit said on messaging site Telegram that a fire had broken out at a fuel and lubricants warehouse “as a result of an attack by a Ukrainian drone in the Zheleznogorsky district” in Kursk, a region that borders Ukraine.
“The fuel tank is on fire, no one was injured. Emergency services arrived at the scene,” he said, according to a Google translation.
Shortly after, Starovoit posted another message warning the city of Zheleznogorsk of “missile danger,” telling its residents to take shelter in windowless rooms with solid walls.
CNBC was unable to immediately verify the claim and Ukraine has not publicly commented on the incident. It previously launched numerous drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure, such as oil refineries, in other border regions including Rostov, Bryansk, Belgorod and Voronezh.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday said he welcomed the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants for two senior Russian military officials.
“International justice requires time, but it is unavoidable. We continue to make every effort to ensure that no Russian beast responsible for the murder of Ukrainian children, women, and men goes unpunished. And no number of stars on shoulder straps or cabinet doors will keep them from being held accountable,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on social media platform X.
Earlier on Tuesday, the ICC said that there were “reasonable grounds to believe” that the two Russian military officials were responsible for strikes that could be classed as war crimes.
— Sophie Kiderlin
The International Criminal Court on Tuesday said it had issued arrest warrants for two senior Russian military officials: Lieutenant General Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash and Admiral Viktor Nikolayevich Sokolov.
“Pre-Trial Chamber II considered that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the two suspects bear responsibility for missile strikes carried out by the forces under their command against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure from at least 10 October 2022 until at least 9 March 2023,” the ICC said in a statement.
It added that there was reason to believe the strikes were aimed at civilian targets and caused “excessive incidental harm.” They could be classed as actions taken against a civilian population, which falls under the category of “crimes against humanity or inhumane acts,” the ICC said.
— Sophie Kiderlin
Moldova’s spy chief said on Tuesday that Russia was planning fresh attempts to meddle in the country’s internal affairs by provoking protests, interfering in upcoming presidential elections, and disrupting plans to join the European Union.
Alexandru Musteata, head of the Information and Security Service, said his agency had intercepted a record level of activities by the Russian security services since 2023 and expected more destabilizing actions this year and next.
“Russian intelligence services intend to interfere in the election processes this year as well,” Musteata told media.
“We have information that attempts are being made to compromise a referendum on the European integration, interfere in the presidential elections, as well as discredit government institutions and politicians who support Moldova’s accession to the European Union.”
Relations between Moldova and Russia have disintegrated as the government has steered a pro-European course and accused Moscow of trying to destabilize it. The ex-Soviet state’s pro-Western president Maia Sandu has denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as she leads Moldova on a path to join the EU and defence alliance NATO.
Moscow denies the allegations of interference and accuses Sandu of stoking anti-Russian sentiment in the country, which lies between Ukraine and Romania.
Musteata said Moscow tried to meddle in the local elections last November in Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries. Moscow has denied such interference. Musteata said Moscow was also planning to interfere in an upcoming presidential vote by supporting pro-Russian politicians and parties.
Russia would likely provoke protests in Moldova in March and April and stir up separatist sentiments, especially in the east and south of Moldova, he said. Last month, the pro-Moscow head of Moldova’s Gagauzia region asked Russia for its support and to maintain close ties. Also in February, Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region asked Russia to help its economy withstand Moldovan “pressure”.
— Reuters
Moscow has continued its saber-rattling over the pro-Russian region of Transnistria in Moldova this week, with the guesswork continuing over what it could do next.
Analysts note that Russian authorities would find it hard to physically reach the breakaway region to reinforce troops there, or to even annex it, but there are still ways it can stir up pro-Russian unrest and trouble for Moldova.
Since the separatist self-proclaimed authorities in Transnistria asked for Moscow’s “protection” against the Moldovan authorities last week — a move that was widely seen as coordinated with the Kremlin and a possible precursor to Russia beefing up its military presence there, or even annexing the region — the West has been closely watching the rhetoric coming from Moscow.
Problematically for Russia, Moldova and Transnistria are landlocked, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine. That would mean that reinforcing its troops in the region would be challenging.
But Russia could still cause trouble, especially as a presidential election in Moldova is set to be held later this year — a vote that could be held alongside a referendum on EU membership.
Read more on the story here: Russia can’t reach a pro-Russian region in Moldova easily — but there are ways it can cause trouble
— Holly Ellyatt
Ukraine military intelligence said Tuesday that it used naval drones to attack a Russian ship off the coast of Crimea.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence said special unit Group 13 had damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship, the “Sergey Kotov,” near Russian-occupied Crimea.
“The ‘Kotov’ was damaged by fire in the territorial waters of Ukraine, near the Kerch Strait,” the agency said on Telegram in comments translated by NBC. It said the cost of the sunken ship “is about 65 million dollars.”
“As a result of the strike by Magura V5 naval drones, the Russian ship of project 22160 “Sergei Kotov” suffered damage to the stern, right and left sides,” it added.
Apparently referencing the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said on Telegram on Tuesday that “the Russian Black Sea Fleet is a symbol of occupation. It cannot be in the Ukrainian Crimea.”
CNBC was unable to immediately verify the reports.
Ukraine’s operations to attack Russia’s Black Sea Fleet were among its key successes in 2023, with drone and missile attacks on the Crimean port of Sevastopol forcing Russia to withdraw a number of its ships from its main base there.
— Holly Ellyatt
Russia threatens to expel reporters, accuses ambassadors of meddling; Ukraine sinks Black Sea Fleet ship
